ARES_IV

Burned speculators

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5 hours ago, BjKalderon said:

Therefore, in the update 0.9.90, we plan to increase the amount of plastic earned during raids.

16 words..... that make the plastic market light up in flames....

MONEY_BURNS.png

 

Within barely one hour... plastic price melts away over 30 %.... a deep fall of more than 100 coins per 1000 units...

Panic sales of speculators further increase pressure on the already dwindling price. A lot of speculators - myself included - lost money today.

 

Oh the pain... :crying:... its real.... comparered to the optimum selling point I am now almost a 1.000 coins poorer. Thankfully I invested into the market early enough to still make a profit but it it is less than half of the expected value.

 

 

And then I am still somewhat the lucky one... having access to the game for emergency sale earlier than many other people who still are at work and can only sell their plastic at even greater losses.

 

The interesting question is... where will plastic price end?

Based on the current maximum price:

- if developers increase plastic income by 50 % we will most likely see a plastic price of arround 230 coins net per 1000 units. That is low enough to create REAL loss of value for all speculator who buyed higher than 255 coins.

- If developers double the amount of plastic... we will see a plastic price of arround 170 coins net per 1000 units.  That is low enough to make it a zero sum game even for people who buyed plastic when you could 1:1 it for wires.

- if they increase it even more.... anyone who owned plastic to this date in the game - and not sold it - will suffer a signficiant loss of value.

 

I would strongy advise everyone who has a bid for plastic based items to terminate the offer immediatly.... those items should become cheaper soon.

 

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I sold mine like 1 week ago, it wasn't at the highest price (like 32 per 100), i was 100 % sure something would changed.. Plastic were worth so much more than batteries and it made no sense at all (cause plastic is for epic, batteries for legendary). People that are shocked by this have no excuse honestly. I think they gonna nerf it progressively and its gonna take more than one patch but in the end, should be worth more than wire, but less than batteries. Around 10 per 100 with the current market situation, but again I think its gonna take multiple patchs before it happens.

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Well ares you are so called pro forum user ? Didnt u expect that  they WILL fix plastic.I already know plastic will crash after they introduce new plastic. (Ru forums more active) even tho i do ZERO market flipping, this is predictable.So I am very happy to see plastic flippers crying :)

Already sitting on 20k scrap 9k wire for mass craft cuz i know this system wont work.

Edited by StreaMRoLLeR
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Lol yeah. But did you notice how low the price went just after it was annoused? It's funny how the devs didn't even say how much more will the raids give plastic, so you can't really estimate the new price.

I didn't manage to buy much more because I was hesitant and then the price started to recover.

 

This game is really hmmm something. Nearly every week there is some large change that wrecks stuff up on market. And I don't mean in negative or positive way, just causing chaos. It's like the devs have been affected by the crossout virus.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, sam93931 said:

Plastic were worth so much more than batteries and it made no sense at all (cause plastic is for epic, batteries for legendary). 

 

There is no reason why plastic would be cheaper than batteries. Plastic is in much higher need, plastic is the "limiting"/prime resource on purples. The opposite is true for batteries. Batteries are a seconrary resource on legendaries.

 

And surprise in both cases the more expensive resource is the raid resource.

Edited by ByiTyi

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3 minutes ago, ByiTyi said:

 

 

This game is really hmmm something. Nearly every week there is some large change that wrecks stuff up on market. And I don't mean in negative or positive way, just causing chaos. It's like the devs have been affected by the crossout virus.

 

That's not the game. That's the kiddos using the "free market system."

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11 hours ago, sam93931 said:

I sold mine like 1 week ago, it wasn't at the highest price (like 32 per 100), i was 100 % sure something would changed.. Plastic were worth so much more than batteries and it made no sense at all (cause plastic is for epic, batteries for legendary). People that are shocked by this have no excuse honestly. I think they gonna nerf it progressively and its gonna take more than one patch but in the end, should be worth more than wire, but less than batteries. Around 10 per 100 with the current market situation, but again I think its gonna take multiple patchs before it happens.

That is an interesting opinion. I dont think that batteries will ever be more valuable than plastic because farming batteries cost only time while farming plastics will always cost time and fuel.

 

The moment the plastic gained has less coin value than the 40 fuel spent on gaining it only fools will keep doing those raids. To add insult to injury even at the highest plastic price level doing PVP was still more profitable per hour. Sure... batteries sell for less than plastics but you can earn much more of them per hour.

 

At the end of the day, smart people will always go for the "coins generated per hour" value because this is what makes your richer than your contemporaries who dont follow that rule.

 

At your estimated price point of 10 per 100 units, no sane player will ever waste his lifetime to do raids that will make him poorer.

 

 

11 hours ago, StreaMRoLLeR said:

Didnt u expect that  they WILL fix plastic.I already know plastic will crash after they introduce new plastic. (Ru forums more active) even tho i do ZERO market flipping, this is predictable.So I am very happy to see plastic flippers crying :)

Why would they? Plastic raids require a price of well above 300 coins to be worth the 40 fuel. And it is not like the ever "fixed" electronics. And it is also a first that they pre announce patches.... I intended to sell my plastic next week before the patch thursday at maximum price. Interesting btw how fast news like this travels... it took less than one hour to sink the plastic price by 30 %... at a time where most people in europe where either in work or in school.

 

At the core issue of raids unprofitability lays the issue that we we have to much copper on the market because copper is generated by all 3 raids. Plastics could have been the fix for that... offering medium raids players finally a ressource worth doing the raid for. I have serious doubt that after the income increase in plastic that the plastic reward gained in those medium raids will be worth more than the 40 fuel.... which means that medium raids are also going to favour copper which will further devalueate it.

 

4 hours ago, ByiTyi said:

There is no reason why plastic would be cheaper than batteries. Plastic is in much higher need, plastic is the "limiting"/prime resource on purples. The opposite is true for batteries. Batteries are a seconrary resource on legendaries.

 

And surprise in both cases the more expensive resource is the raid resource.

Yes... because raids cost fuel while PVP can even generate it. Thent there is the time efficiency issue. In the same time period you can do a raid you can also farm arround 20 batteries... except that those 20 batteries (+fuel gained) are more valuable than the net profit from the raid.

 

 

4 hours ago, Seanwilliams78 said:

 

That's not the game. That's the kiddos using the "free market system."


And the market system still works. Made basically still 700 coins out of thin air..... the only dissapointment is that it wasnt 1500 coins.

Edited by ARES_IV

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Im pretty sure no school anywhere in summer expect maybe Australia. Well and others which dont have summer in "summer".

Edited by ByiTyi

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19 hours ago, ARES_IV said:

Panic sales of speculators further increase pressure on the already dwindling price. A lot of speculators - myself included - lost money today.

Only those that sold on the announcement.  I'll hold my Plastics for now..

  1. The price will bounce after the crash
  2. The change is likely to be less than players are expecting
  3. It's still valued at a lot more than it cost me
  4. I'll probably need most of it in the future

It was always going to be a bubble market for Plastics.  There's a couple more bubbles inflating on the Market at the moment, and there will be a couple more along in a few weeks time.  Bubbles come, bubbles burst.

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I had 5000 plastic in my storage (I hoarded them during the Flea Market). I never had plans to sell them since I wanted to craft bunch of epics (in order to craft a bunch of Legendaries :004:). I'll keep crafting those items and depleting my storage knowing at least they'll be cheaper to buy once I run out.

 

It's all how you view the whole situation.

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"Speculators" who can't accurately predict the market changes are great.

Made so much coin off of them.

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Sometimes you win... sometimes you loose... :002:

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Lol holding on to your plastic right now is pretty silly. You can make lots of coints crafting many purple items and completeting them instantly. Pretty much all factions have items than sell for 40-50 coin profit, so taking out the 20 coin will still leave you 20-30 coin profit.

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1) You still made money just by speculation.

2) You really expected that plastic price would increase forever? People simply wouldn't craft epics anymore.

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I think its nice to have less plastic aka less time in raids. After the raids have been made longer and the old ones which were A LOT faster and dunamic got removed i dont even bother to use my daily fuel. I only do hard raids for the season. I cant be bothered whit the other ones anymore. And i always buy my plastic since i hate doing raids.

I feel sorry for those who wasted their life grinding that crap.

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I don’t think you’re losing money during the first five plastic raids you run since you get 200 fuel free everyday. Five meds is all I’m gonna do in one sitting then reward myself with pvp. 

actually tho I’ve had a blast in both med and hard raids recently... with a triple judge build LOL. (Raids are still to long tho). It’s super fun to send nomad bots flipping across the battlefield. 

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So, I exchanged 20,000 wires for plastics during the flea market. Wires are pretty worthless so I am ahead in my opinion. Also, those plastics are mine for use, not for sale anyway. But, what I have seen is Scrap is still the best resource for farming coins. Now, I did not use a calculator or even pen and paper, just in my head using rounding. First I noticed that while Batteries are like double the price of wires, you earn double the amount of wires in the same amount of time, thus they are about equal in value. Then, I noticed that scrap and wires are about equal in price for 100, but you earn twice as much scrap in the same amount of time as well. So, unless you have scrapped the limit, scrap is still the best resource in PVP to grind for. Of course if you have unlimited time and patience to grind away for hours, then you can grind out all three.

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Assuming you have not yet hits any limits.. you should always grind the stuff that makes the most coins per hour. Which is why most raids are not time efficient.... even if they are profitable - which many of them are not - you would make more coins by playing 3 or 4 PVP games in the same amount of time..

Batteries are more profitable than wires if the battery price is more than 2 times higher.

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Current plastic price: 410 coins.

 

I really regret selling it now.... although I have to say I did not expect that the plastic price would ever go up like that again.

 

What is driving the price like that? Devs just doubled the amount you earn... the price by all means and accounts should fall not raise. :dntknw:

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The gold rush is on!

 

People are crafting Epic like there's no tomorrow (and some crafing Legendaries out of them like me) because of the high profit margins.

 

Now that the plastic is on the rise again it means pretty soon the prices of epics will start to fall and after that the plastic prices settle down a bit too.

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The new upcoming season type will link resource prices a bit more together. Right now some resources have rocketed because of pack sales while some resources have raised only little(wires and copper).

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The current price of plastic being held up at 400G per 1K is holding ONLY because the speculators who obtained plastic in large quantities are now the only ones selling it.

DO NOT BUY PLASTIC until it reached its new fair price - no more than 150 coins per 1K

The amount you can grind has doubled, yet the speculators seem to have a hold on the market.

Those damn capitalists.

Edited by Komun1sT
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13 hours ago, Komun1sT said:

DO NOT BUY PLASTIC until it reached its new fair price - no more than 150 coins per 1K

Boll*cks to "fair" - that concept's strictly for the kiddiewinks.

The price will eventually stabilise at it's utility value, which is probably still around 375Cr (+/- 50Cr), pending the impact of changes to challenges/seasons.

The recent change to Plastic only halted it's rise in price, the panic sell crashed the price temporarily, and since then it's risen again - still to find its balance.

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